Saturday, September 26, 2020

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Economics -- Sustainable?

I had a dream yesterday morning, jut a little before I woke up to get ready to go deliver the mail.

I was visiting a young boy in a wheelchair.

I could tell his body wanted to do something active, so I lifted him up onto my shoulders and let him use his arms to climb around on my back and shoulders and swing from my arms, helping him when his strength was insufficient.

When he was played out, I turned my back to his wheelchair and let him slide back down to sit.

He wanted me to come back the next day, and so did his physical trainer and his parents. The trainer pointed out that it seemed to be a good alternative approach to helping him develop the muscles that were not developing.

I had to explain that I could not visit every day due to other obligations, and there was some discussion of how often I could visit.

There were several limits to my ability to visit every day. One was that I had other obligations. Another was financial limits, in that making a regular commitment would require me to refrain to commit to other activities -- activities that would bring in pay.

A third limit was that making the visits regular would quickly relieve the visit of its novelty, equalizing it in effect with other, more normal methods.

In other words, making it a planned regular activity would rob it of its effect.

I don't remember if I explained clearly to them that I was sure that they would end up making my visits part of his "new training schedule plans", where I knew such plans were not appropriate. If such visits ("sessions") did lead to progress, progress would be in fits and starts and reversions. And the boy would need freedom to not play some days.

It was about this point that my eyes opened and I checked the alarm clock.

Most of the jobs I have had in my varied and spotted career have been the sort that do not result in sustainable family economics. 

Many of my jobs just haven't paid enough.

In many of my software and computer related jobs, the company was looking for a superman, but what they needed was for everyone in the company to buckle down and learn what they were actually selling, what they were actually producing, and devote time and resources to closing the gap. And to learn what computers cannot, in principle, do, so that the sales group would quit trying to sell things that were impossible.

They thought I could be their superman.

People don't want troubleshooters. They want magicians. 

-- and that's not a sustainable economic model for anyone.

In my private tutoring in English in Japan, some of the parents and students understood what I was doing and approved. But most could not let the bait of improving test scores alone long enough to let their children or themselves really relax and learn to communicate in English. 

Side-track on test scores -- If you design a test to display what one group of students has learned, there are other groups of students who were progressing in different but equally important areas, and the test fails to show their progress. The test rewards the two groups unequally. And there is much more to be said on the limits of tests which will have to be discussed elsewhere.

The English lessons themselves are a case in point. The best way to help a child who has not been progressing in school is to let that child explore the subject on his or her own. The student knows where he or she is getting stuck, and it may be in a blind alley or it may not, but the gaps can't be bridged if the student is continually being forced to study for the test instead of being allowed to fill in the lacks. 

You can't plan lessons in advance for the kind of teaching that is needed.

But without a plan, you can't have a sustainable activity.

Without a sustainable activity, in the current economic environment, you can't have sustainable development or sustainable economics.

Which brings me to my point, but does not bring you to the same point, I suppose. Let's try another tack.

A common complaint about popular songs is that (at any particular point in time) so much of it sounds the same. And well it should. The captains of the industry are devoted to that great principle of sustainable economics -- if it sells, make more of it.

Every now and then, some artist breaks out of the mold in just the right way to catch a wave of interest, and you get another big hit, and then everybody works on figuring out ways to copy it without infringing on the laws on intellectual property.

In case you aren't aware of how those breaks (hit songs, boom cycles) happen, here is how it happens: there will be groups of artists who are willing to set aside the principles of sustainable economics and forego immediate profit. (Willing to, as a technology teacher warned his students, "eat dirt and go naked".) The new hits come out of a few of those groups. 

But the profits are rewarded (somewhat randomly) to individuals from those groups (who are then dragged away from those groups by management). The profits do not return to the groups where the hits came from.

Maybe that brings you closer to the point.

Is sustainable sustainable?

Yet a different tack on the concept -- 

Ideals are good, right? But every ideal humans have developed in all our recorded history sooner or later leads to a dead or violent end. 

${White_supremacy} was an ideal that many found perplexingly reasonable -- mostly many ${whites}. But, surprisingly, many non-${whites} who preferred, perversely, to let someone else take the burdens of being socially superior. 

That preference may have been fear of retribution against contrary opinions in many cases, but in others was something else -- Leading is hard, and even most individual ${white_supremacists} perversely want someone else to lead the movement.

And basically, every political movement and ideal can be substituted in the place of ${white_supremacy} in the above paragraphs and it comes out the same.

Ideals adopted by the crowd quickly turn divisive and violent.

Should we get rid of ideals, then? 

Apparently, they are necessary. Otherwise people can't seem to see which way to head. But they are also necessary to abandon when the time comes. It is necessary to be ready to discard previously held ideals in favor of better ones, one at a time, when each ideal is no longer beneficial to the individual who has been holding it.

And society works much better when we don't all have to have the same ideals at once.

Sustainable development and sustainable economics seem like really good ideas. Okay, they are really good ideas. But in the end they are just another ideal.

The terms themselves contain an internal contradiction (just like all ideals, really). 

You cannot plan real progress, and without progress there is neither development nor economics.

Now, someone will point out that what is currently being called sustainable development in the international community is making use of our ecological resources in renewable ways.

Renewable?

How many people understand that all energy in our world comes, ultimately, from a very radioactive nuclear reactor in the center of the solar system? We are protected from it by distance, by atmosphere, and by a convenient magnetosphere. But without that huge source of (ultimately, non-renewable in a universe subject to entropy, but that's a long time away) energy, none of our economic activities are renewable.

Nuclear energy.

We have a lot of radioactive materials spread out all over the world. This was true well before such as the Curies, Einstein, Dalton, et. al. helped us understand the atomic nature of matter -- even well before Leucippus and Democritus. In some places they are naturally concentrated in ways that are dangerous to our safety there.

We also have a lot of nuclear reactor waste that has been concentrated by human means. And it's not going away anytime soon, either. 

Leaving it all there to slowly radiate away into the darkness is actually a waste of a good resource, a waste demanded by those who fear what happens when we mishandle it.

We are mishandling it now. 

We should be researching ways to use it safely, instead of sweeping it under the metaphorical rug of some mountain or desert in some remote part of the world we think we're safe from.

Most of the waste of our current economic activities is not radioactive. But it is still quite poisonous, quite dangerous to our health, and quite wasteful. 

Consider our old computers and portable phones. At least subliminally, you have to be aware that most of that ends up in highly toxic industrial dumps somewhere.

And the irony of it is that some of the very resources we are running short of are hiding in those dumps.

In too many of the ways it is used today, "sustainable" means "doing what we are already doing". That means continuing to call dumping waste "renewable", as long as we can find another place to dump most of it after a little processing to remove something currently of value.

And that isn't sustainable. Not in the long run.

So what is the answer?

Is sustainable not sustainable?

Or is it only temporarily sustainable and then you have to do it again?

Laws don't work. People always find loopholes so they can keep doing what they know how to do.

Right now, the answer is this: 

Those who have amassed great wealth by promoting the economic activities that generated the waste must learn to invest in their children's future by supporting the currently unprofitable activities of finding and developing safe ways to recover our waste -- preferably ways that don't entail seriously underpaid people working in slave conditions in distant countries poisoning themselves to got it done.

What if they insist on keeping their wealth instead?

What good will their wealth do if the next pandemic comes before we have proper vaccines for the current? 

Or if the slowly degrading plastics building up somewhere in the confluence of ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean ends up poisoning all the food-grade fish in the world? 

Or if the radioactive waste dumps in the deserts and mountains start leaking into the very place where rainwater for the continent is absorbed back into clouds to rain on the rest of the continent?

I don't see very many of our multi-billionaires jumping on this.

Popular movements, popular charities, popular areas of technological development -- things everyone is already doing, mostly activities that indirectly support the companies where they have their fortunes salted away, sure, they jump on those. 

But not on the unsustainable activities that will lead us back to a new round of sustainability.

We can't be sustainable with short-term views of sustainability, and five and ten years is way too short-term.

WEAR THE MASK, FOR *** SAKE, YOU FOOL!!!! (a Response)


More people are getting sick for several reasons. 

The changing of the seasons is only part of the equation. 

Use of masks is also only part of the equation.

Masks never could be more than a low wall, and if they are not kept clean they quickly (three days or less) begin to defeat their own purpose. A dirty mask helps neither the wearer nor the people he is around.

The materials masks are made of become allergenic after long term use.

And I could go on about masks, but they are only part of the equation.

If you believe in God, may I ask you to consider that God may be trying to get us to slow our collective pursuit of the rat race down.

If not, let me tell you about how excessive and inappropriate competition is weakening all the foundations of our society, including our bases for maintaining health.

As best we can understand it, and much to the Chinese government's dismay and embarrassment, the virus made the jump from animals to the human population in slave-labor populations in China, where it is impossible for people to maintain nutrition, hygiene or other necessary conditions for health.

From there, it traveled first among populations in poverty, and communicated to the upper middle class where those populations touch -- ergo, from the slave-labor conditions where it jumped to the relatives and friends in slightly better conditions who work in sweatshops making our high-tech gadgets and such, and from there to their managers. 

Their managers have the means to go traveling, and it was a large group of vacationers who first brought it from China to Japan, to places like the snow festivals in Sapporo and Hokkaidō. 

In the developed world, it was the people with compromised immune systems who picked it up first (and whom it hit worst). This is not a surprise, really, since it is the immune systems' job to defend us. 

We were surprised when the methods of kicking certain parts of our immune systems into high-gear backfired, and excessive immune system reactions began to turn deadly.

Think about this carefully. These are partially immuno-compromised individuals who have adopted the habit of taking various drugs to help them keep working in spite of having really bad colds. In times past, a cold that bad could be deadly, but we have drugs to deal with the cold symptoms now.

Well, it turned out that those drugs had side effects that turned against us in this version of the cold virus. (Corona viruses are cold viruses, remember?) This should also be no surprise. 

When you push your body too hard with those drugs (including antihistamines and excessively high doses of vitamin C, and such), you go down, and the doc has to take you off those crutch medicines and convince you to get rest and nutrition. Even if the doctor can't convince you to go off the drugs, he or she really tries to convince you to get some rest. 

(Take notice of this: It's the rest and nutrition that heals you.)

A virus that kicks up a high-level response in the body combining with drugs that kick up a high-level response is going to result in a violent reaction, and the violent reaction can result in death and debilitating disease.

Now, a rudimentary understanding of epidemiology tells us that these kinds of pandemic continue until we develop herd immunity. 

We develop herd immunity in several ways. 

One is die-off. Horrible as that is, it is reality.

Another is by letting our bodies develop natural immunity by exposure. The low walls like masks slow the contagion down, which gives individuals more time to develop immunity. But if we then fail to strengthen our general health, to be ready for increased exposure, we lose the benefit of the low walls. 

Pre-exposure through vaccines is similar to the low-walls in this -- if we fail to keep our health up, vaccines have limits.

In modern society, we have often been able to dodge die-off by hygienic practices, by improving our overall health, and by the pre/faux-exposure of vaccines. But all of that also slows down the development of herd immunity, which means the viruses mutate and come back.

They don't go away until we develop herd immunity, both by exposure and by giving up the behaviors which enabled the virus to make the mutation jump in the first place.

The virus jumped in slave-labor conditions where it is impossible for people to maintain health.

We pick it up and pass it on when our behavior causes us to have dropped immunities.

Those behaviors include bad nutrition, lack of sleep, high levels of inappropriate stress, use of mood-altering substances, poor social hygiene, etc. 

How sick we get is also in no small part determined by our overall health, including whether our immune systems are within appropriate functional parameters -- we have seen clearly this time that kicking (some of) our immune systems into overdrive is another bad habit of modern society, and can cause a virus infection to turn fatal or debilitating when it otherwise wouldn't.

Even if you don't believe in God, you have to understand that nature itself is effectively telling us as a civilization, and me and you as individuals, to slow down.

-- to give up the bad habit of excessive competition, and the bad habit of trying to force everyone around you to compete in the games that you think you can win.

This is why this post is in my political blog. The causes of the pandemic, and the cure, happen to coincide with the causes and cure of our current social, political, and economic distress.

If we don't change what caused the pandemic, hanging on to your mask will be no better than trying to hang on to a clump of grass when you're dangling over the edge of a cliff. 

Sure, wear the mask sensibly, but fix the other problems. 

Slow down. Learn to give others a chance to live.

Monday, September 21, 2020

Cap in Hand

The Atlantic ran what I assume was an opinion piece, showing a picture of Donald Trump walking cap in hand in the dark with his top button unbuttoned, his tie hanging loose, captioned with the label "loser".

 


I won't comment on the contents of the piece. I saw it repeated all over the internet, with a unanimous, "TRUMP HAS DONE HIMSELF IN THIS TIME FOR SURE YOU CAN TELL BY HOW DEFEATED HE LOOKS!" refrain. Back in July.

Uhm, guys, if anyone is listening, I know what it's like to walk home cap-in-hand. I know what it means to loosen my tie. I know what it's like to wear myself out fighting battles when the people I want to help insist on beating me. 

I know what it's like to hear people using mockery to try to push me out of their way so they can promote their agendas. 

I also know what it's like to watch the mockers sink their own ship when they succeed in pushing me out of the way. It's not something that makes me happy. And it's not something I want to see happen to my country.

I don't agree with a lot of things Trump has said. Hey, after he shoots off at the mouth and takes some time to think about it, even he doesn't agree with a lot of the things he has said. 

I don't think it's necessary to have a president who only says and does things I agree with. In fact, considering all the other opinions necessary to keep the country running, I think it would be a very bad thing to have a president who only said and did things I agreed with.

But I consider the mockery he faces, and I definitely can't agree with that. And I think the mockery is a bad enough thing that I feel it necessary to say so in public.

When everything you say is mockery, it becomes really hard to communicate.

If you are going to criticize him, find something of substance to criticize. (But criticizing people is surely not a constructive use of your time.)

If you are going to criticize his record, find something of substance to criticize. (Better yet, quit criticizing and start trying to help find real solutions to our problems that aren't pie-in-the-sky. And quit blaming him for everything when you are at least partly to blame.)

If your continual harping on his humanness doesn't seem to be winning you anything but echos from your echo chamber, consider opening yourself up to opinions outside your echo chamber.

If the politics you promote don't seem to be winning in the polls, maybe you should reconsider your politics instead of blaming him for your lack of popularity.

Or maybe you should just state your opinions and let others state theirs, like I do. (Notice that I am not mocking you, just telling you I don't think mocking people is constructive dialog. I can see a difference.)

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Real-world Mask Use

(This belongs in my Random Eikaiwa blog, but it's too political to put it there without annotation.)

Alfeo: "Why are you looking at my neck?"

Betty: "Sorry. I'm not a vampire, just wondering if you have a tracheostomy."

Alfeo: "Huh? Oh. You mean why is my mask down around my neck?"

Betty: "Not meaning to be rude or anything."

Alfeo: "Just sarcastic is all."

Betty: "No. Seriously. Masks are sometimes used to protect stomas."

Afleo: "Nothing like that. I just forgot to pull it back up over my face. There. Is that better?"

Betty "Yes. Covering both the mouth and the nose is much more effective at blocking potential vectors."

Alfeo: "True."

Betty: "So why do you pull it down?"

Alfeo: (Breathes through the mask.) "Haaahhhh."

Betty: "Oh. Your glasses get foggy."

Alfeo: "Yep. All steamed up. And that makes it hard to read the addresses on the mail I have to deliver. Which kind of defeats the purpose of the glasses."

Betty: "I see."

Alfeo: "So I pull the mask down when no one's around. And then I sometimes forget to pull it back up."

Betty; "What do you do when people are around?"

Alfeo: "Take the glasses off."

Betty: "Then how do you read the addresses?"

Alfeo: "Slowly. And when the address is in fine print like this one --"

Betty: "Wow! That's tiny! I have a hard time reading that with my contacts in."

Alfeo: "Yeah. So I lift the glasses up to read it. It takes extra time, but it allows me to keep the mask on when people are around."

Betty: "Why do people print addresses so tiny?"

Alfeo: "I don't know. Maybe the address was too long for the label? The people who write the addressing software didn't want to take the time to deal with really long addresses?"

Betty: "Why would systems engineers do that?"

Alfeo: "Deadlines. Speaking of which, I have to get back to work."

Betty: "I'd better get out of your way so you can work fast. It looks like you still have a lot of mail to deliver today."

Alfeo: "Thanks. I do."

Saturday, June 13, 2020

What It Is Ain't Exactly Clear

Linking a BassHook post on the violence in Seattle. View at your own risk.

:-/



(I figured out that I could embed the original post, so I'm embedding that instead of my response post.)

(Irony included. If you can't see the pictures through either the link or the embedded frame above, I'll spoil it for you. Street art. Lots of crowds, including children. Not the kind of violence you may have been hearing about, no apparent violence at all. Stores open and in operation. No weapons in sight. Just for the record, my nephew, who lives there, confirms the lack of violence and weaponry.)

I'm going to post my additional comments from my FB post on it here, as well, unpacked just a little:

Woodstock was not a Sunday picnic for flower children, but the people who attended generally took care of themselves and each other at a certain level of consideration and morality, in spite of the fact that many were high.

Woodstock redmond stage
(Image by Derek Redmond and Paul Campbell, used under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license, courtesy Wikimedia.)

(It is true that the standards of morality observed at Woodstock are not the standards that I hope everyone will someday understand and choose. There is something about people that induces many of us to choose a lesser happiness that we can see now over a greater one that we can't yet see. But there were a lot of people there, and there was very little violence. Look it up if you don't believe me.)

Altamont was intended by the promoters to be Woodstock West or something, but the results were significantly more violent. I leave it to the reader to discern the reasons.

Altamont free concert poster
(Image by Flickr user Paille on Flickr, used under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license, via Wikimedia.)

(Well, my own take on the difference between Altamont and Woodstock, Woodstock was organic. Altamont was a deliberate attempt to recreate the organic, and that generally results in something artificial. Artificial tends to be unsatisfying.)

As a non-tangential tangent, I'll mention Kent State:




FWIW, we've been through this before.



There are people who need to say something, and they are trying to say it. Instead of trying to keep them from saying it, the least we can do is let them have their voice. And it might not hurt to try to listen to what they are saying, to try to understand.

Sunday, May 31, 2020

What Is Causing the Riots?

I don't mean who, and I don't mean to raise the question of paid anti-whatever protestors allegedly coming in from out-of-town, nor of apparently whatever-supremacist police officers who allegedly disguise themselves to do what the real protesters wouldn't in pushing the violence forward.

Yes, that stuff is happening, and it shouldn't surprise anyone. If you haven't learned the lessons of history, nature abhors a vacuum, etc. There is no magic that will keep the USA safe for a free people if the people won't support their own freedom.

This is not a question of left versus right.

What is it to support your own freedom?

<> Is it carrying guns?

Well, sometimes, but I think that is not the most important thing. Definitely not now.

<> Is it voicing your opinions in spite of all the people who mock or threaten?

Of course. But that is also not exactly the most important thing.

<> Is it listening to people who need a listening ear?

Now there is very important thing, even though it can be hard to distinguish one needy listening ear that you can't help from another that you can. It does work out if you try.

<> Is it volunteering to help at the local library?

How about taking time off your $100+/hour job to do it?

How much do you make an hour? According to my sources, current average USA household income is $60,000 a year. That would be $5000 a month. If it meant a 40 hour workweek for a household with only one wage earner, that wage earner would be making about $30/hour.

That's not easy to live on, but more than half of the households in the US are making less than that, with all adults working. (That's what average household income means.)

If you are making more than $200,000 a year, are you willing to scrape a bit off of that to volunteer at the library, or do some other social service that nobody wants to pay for?

Are you willing to tell your boss that his plans for world domination need to take a back seat to the needs of the people around you?

If you are the boss with the plans for world domination, do you have a net worth more than USD 4,000,000 at, say, age forty? That's enough to retire comfortably. Are you willing to forego those plans for world domination -- to retire and let someone else take your place and earn a living?

Actually, if you have that much, you could move aside and let three people make average wages.

You say it's not that simple?

Steve Jobs did it for several years to bring Apple back.

Yeah, he was working, but he forewent his wages so others could also work.

Bringing the country back is not a better purpose?

I've said it elsewhere, and I'm not the first.

Protecting your freedom means giving. Not just food, not just money, not just advice on how to make more money. 

It also means giving way, and getting out of the way, so that others can have their turn, so they can earn their place.

That's how you keep the paid protesters from having no other work than paid protest.

And that's how you keep the white supremacists from feeling like white supremacy is the only thing that will protect their right to work.

Give up those plans for world domination. (World domination never works out the way you think it will, anyway.)

Move over.

Let others have a turn working.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

So What Is the Problem with Vote-by-mail and Vote-by-Internet?

I've been reflex-sharing some BassHook posts calling for opposition to the spread of vote-by-mail. Several people whose opinions I respect have called me on it. So I'm going to resort to the first solution of the pedant and try to explain.

(But I'm going to listen to myself, and see how much of the explanation makes sense.)

[JMR202005171402: I have now written a bit more succinctly on this topic in another place: https://free-is-not-free.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-inconvenience-of-voting-and.html. You might want to read that before, or instead of, this.]

Good explanations need backgrounds, so I'll give links to as much of the background in my thinking as I can. )These blogposts are about current problems in balloting systems and some suggestions I have considered for solutions to those problems):
For more background on my thinking, I offer this: I divide political systems called democratic into three rough classes, which nowhere near completely cover them all, but I think it is an instructive partition:
  • Mob rule
  • Popularity contest
  • Free society
Under mob rule democracy, you generally have a small number of small groups of people who manipulate the will and actions of the people, getting them to choose and behave in ways in which they would not when they are of a sober state of mind.

Under popularity contest democracy, you generally have a small number of small, partially hidden groups of people who put figureheads out and use them to manipulate the opinions and dialogue of the people, getting them to think and talk in ways in which they would not when they are in a sober state of mind.

By contrast, a truely free society is one in which the people in general deliberately refrain from both manipulating and being manipulated.

And if I describe them as being of a sober state of mind, I do not mean that they do not know how to enjoy life or enjoy themselves. Nor do I mean that they have no compassion.

Separating oneself from any state of happiness is not a sober state of mind. Free people understand that a part of the responsibility of freedom is to find thei principle source of joy from within -- otherwise, they leave themselves too open to manipulation.

And the compassion that free people are moved by is all the more real because the compassion is not forced.

But that borders on mysticism.

In an ideal society, from our point of view, it's questionable whether voting systems are even necessary. But if they are, it would seem that any voting system at all should work. In such a society, we think that there are none who want to take people's freedoms away from them -- for whatever reason people decide to try to do that.

In this world, in the various social divisions of the various countries, there are movements to undermine the freedoms of the people. Why? Who knows why some people are dissatisfied when others behave in ways that vary from their own? But it is common self-delusion, to accept a glorious misery as a substitute for internal happiness, because the internal happiness is blocked by controvertion of conscience. And then to work to help others to enjoy the same glorious misery, by getting them to deny their own consciences, as well.

If that feels like I'm poisoning the well, no. That well is already full of poison, I'm just pointing it out.

You cannot be free if you deny your own conscience, any more than you can be free as long as you let society impose the social norm as a substitute for your conscience. Or, rather, letting society dictate what you believe your conscience should be telling you is one very common (and very destructive) way to deny your conscience.

Social norms and standards are no decent substitute for conscience.

Anyway, it is a fact that there are and shall always be, in any group larger than two, some faction that works to undermine freedom.

How do we define a free country, and a free government?

The government of a free country is not a government that is free in some sense, nor is it a government that attempts to force its people to be free.

It  is a government that operates to support the people in their freedom. In order to do so, it must be responsible to the voice of the people.

There is a certain class of political persuasion that insists the voice of the people will always go wrong. There must, in this way of thinking, be a leader to lead the people in the right direction.

History gives us plenty of empirical evidence to the contrary. In every case, when some small faction gains control, if it insists on keeping control, everything quickly goes south.

(This is in addition to the theoretical demonstration I have given above.)

I mentioned it in one of the blogposts linked above, but there is a verse in the Book of Mormon that is one of my favorites:
Now it is not common that the voice of the people desireth anything contrary to that which is right; but it is common for the lesser part of the people to desire that which is not right; (from Mosiah 29: 26.)
It does not say that the voice of the people will or even should always choose the perfect or best option. It only says that the voice of the people usually chooses good options over bad.

I can demonstrate theoretical basis for this proposition, by setting up an integral over the functions of conscience, but I'll leave it to you to work out for yourself whether a group of people who are free can follow their consciences and still come to a useful, positive, good consensus.

Polling systems in every country have problems.

Mechanically assisted polling systems are plagued by failure in the mechanism. One very prominent such failure is known as "hanging chads". But all mechanical systems suffer from the potential to fail.

Electronic (including digital and even internet) polling has several additional weaknesses in addition to the potential of simple failure. Failures in electronic polling systems tend to be silent and invisible. Hanging chads tend to be visible. Failed levers and pulleys tend to be noticed. Failed or breached network interfaces are often entirely unnoticed.

Unnoticed failures in systems are the ones which poison the system, and this is the danger in both internet balloting and mail-in balloting, that failures can go unnoticed long enough to undermine the system beyond repair.

These are actually specific examples of an axiom which has no known counterexample in (mortal) human society:

Every system has vulnerabilities and failure modes.

Those who study systems science are fully aware of this, even though it is often viewed as unprofitable to admit. (Microsoft and now Google are prominent among those large companies which attempt to practice systems science without recognizing the inherent vulnerability of systems, although Microsoft once was quite happy to use the exact same inherent vulnerability as its excuse for following the "80/20 rule".)

This brings us to an axiom in polling, that the must dependable polling system can be nothing but the simplest.

These are the essential characteristics of the most dependable polling systems known:
  1. Written ballot -- leaves a physical, visible record, readable by the unaided eye, that can be recounted.
  2. Separable ballot -- serial numbers for counting unused ballots on one half, no identifying characteristic on the other. Both halves are kept in separate boxes after use. Matching counts helps assure that ballots have not been lost or added.
  3. Voting judges from at least the leading contending parties present on voting site -- in theory, at least, competition between parties will keep them from colluding to pervert the balloting processes. 
In addition to the above characteristics of the system itself, the following features of the system context are also required, to support the system:
  1. Visibility of the process is necessary, to give the voter confidence in both the ballot and the results, leading to a greater willingness to vote according to conscience and a greater motivation to vote again the next time.
  2. Rules for the cases of no clear winner are necessary -- both for breaking ties and for determining when the consensus is none of the provided candidates (partially explained below).
  3. Exceptional voting methods must be provided for exceptional cases (also partially explained below.
Internet voting removes all three of the system characteristics and the first of the context characteristics, although, if-and-only-if there is no failure, cryptographic techniques and cryptology can be used to create electronic equivalents.

The problem with any electronic voting method is that it requires some aid to the eye to read the ballot, and the aid can be deliberately broken in such a way that it shows a false image. Yes, there have been such incidences in real-world electronic voting machines, not just as proof-of-concept, but as actual attacks on the system.

Remember, the worst cases are those in which the attacks succeed without notice.

The problem with mail-in ballots is that it keeps only the first system characteristic above, when-and-only-when the mail system itself is properly functioning.

No, the mail does not always go through. You know that as well as I do.

The ballot travels through the mails, which are known to be vulnerable. There is no way to provide voting judges when the ballot is used, although voting judges can be provided when the ballot is officially opened.

How many times the ballot is unofficially opened is a problem. Certain printing and sealing techniques exist to partially ameliorate the problem of unofficial opening, but resealing is possible. And resealing failures can simply be discarded by the attackers in the middle, the same as ballots from an area known to the middleman to be part of the competing party's stronghold.

So, what are we to do for those who are disenfranchised by the simplest system?

There are many people who, for various reasons beyond their control, are unable to make it to the polls when they are open on election/polling day.

First, employers really should be willing to support the infrastructure of the market their business exists in by releasing their employees, both to vote and to act as voting judges. This should be a no-brainer, but, in fact, it is not common -- and you end up with disenfranchising rush-hour jams just before the polls close.

Second, polls really should be open more than from 8:00 AM to 6/7/8/9:00 PM. I know it's hard to get judges for the early and late hours.

But I suspect that fines levied against employers who fail to release their employees to vote or to be voting judges would do a lot to alleviate both these problems.

I hear about mandatory voting, but I suspect that mandating votes will eventually mandate two extreme reactions -- rebellion against the system and blind conformance, neither of which lead to sober choices at the polls. Participation ultimately must be at the individual's choice, but there may be good reason to use various means to induce employers to release their employees to vote.

Third, although this is where things get a little wonky, especially for people with bipolar personalities, extraordinary voting methods should be provided for those who can't make it to the polls (as I mentioned above).

Ergo, absentee ballots and electronic voting machines for those who really need them, but only for those who really need them.

And they both should be used in the presence of voting judges from at least the leading parties.

Ergo, polls should be set up for members of the military to vote on location, and the times should be extended long enough in advance of and after the voting/polling day to allow all who have to be away on assignment to vote.

Similar polling arrangements should be made for emergency workers and others for whom the question of the employer is not sufficient.

For those for whom showing up in person is too much of a hardship, such as those living in elder-care or health-care facilities, the polls should be brought to the facility, complete with voting judges from the leading contending parties. In this particular case, electronic voting machines can be used, as a better choice than to disenfranchise those who need assistance. But the electronic voting machines still must produce a paper ballot, not an electronic ballot, separable, and anonymized.

Mail-in absentee ballots can be provided for those for whom bringing the polling place to the voter won't work. Again, they must be separable ballots, and they should be opened in the presence of judges from the leading contending parties.

How does this avoid invalidating the result?

These approaches depend on one more adjustment:

When election/polling results are not statistically significant, the election should be done over. I won't dig into details here, but, mathematically speaking, when the top ballots are within 2 to 5% of each other, the result is essentially indistinguishable from a tie, and therefore there should be a run-off.

Along with this adjustment, there also needs to be a none-of-the-above option in every ballot. A hundred years ago, holding an election was difficult enough that trying to deal with a none-of-the-above option was out of the question. In these modern times, we can communicate quickly enough to start a ballot fresh when none-of-the-above wins.

The number of exceptional cases where voters need to send absentee ballots in by mail should never exceed 1% of the number of voters, so perverting the absentee ballot process really should never have substantial effect on the total outcome.

If we handle the rest of it right, we can handle the exceptions.

And now it's time for me to go to bed, so I'll have to finish later (about how all systems fail, and how electronic voting machines must not communicate or track their results, etc.). Have a good night.